if it isn't true, why is it so popular?
Surely the fact that it identifies something deep and meaningful to so many people must show that there is some truth in it...
Case 1: Astrology.
I have enough faith in intelligence that I hope I don't need to spell this one out. I'll just mention it.
Case 2: Forer effect.
You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. Disciplined and self-controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You also pride yourself as an independent thinker; and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. But you have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be rather unrealistic.
[When you present someone with vague or ambiguous information, they process it to suit themselves. The higher the level of authority people associate with who gave it, or how it was worked out, the more likely they are to fit it to themselves.]*
Case 3: The Bible.
So full of contradictions that there is literally something for everyone, if they look for it. And of course we all know how often people so selectively read it; ignoring misses and emphasizing hits.
Today’s Hypothesis: just like the Forer Effect explains astrology’s popularity, so it explains the Bible’s popularity. Discuss.
*[edit: added an explanation for lazy people]
6 comments:
Haha... I was reading that thinking "wow, that's just like me." I have more response, except that I find myself unable to give shape to it yet. I shall ruminate before returning.
I don't really think that the Forer effect applies to The Bible - at least nowhere near as much as it does to horoscopes.
For one thing, the Bible doesn't really make general predictions about what you will be like based on given information about you. Instead, it tends to be part history textbook, part ethics lesson, and part rule-book.
I could be wrong, and if so, can you please demonstrate or describe to me how the Bible makes predictions about the reader?
I'm also not convinced the forer effect applies here. The forer effect is just one of many Cognitive baises, which applies to stuff that is regarding yourself. Usually positive statements, that are really quite general. The bible, on the other hand is kinda different. So I don't think the forer effect explains why people believe the bible. It could possibly be the result of another cognitive bias?
Anyhow, I'd still agree that just because a million people believe it, doesn't mean it's true. But, on the other hand, just because a million people don't believe something else, doesn't mean that that true. It's enough to know that millions of people can be mistaken for a range of reasons, so we ought to be careful of what we believe in.
Firstly, in defence of the Forer Effect in particular being at work in the Bible; the Bible does portray a general characterisation of people that seems to amount to a prediction of what you will be like based on the fact you are a human. I am sure that there is a significant proportion of people who read the bible and feel like it is talking directly to them, because you know… god works like that or something. ((I will admit that I am not entirely satisfied by this line of reasoning because of the expected broadness of general characterisations in the first place.))
Upon reflection, I think it more likely that the popularity is the result of a combination of the more general phenomenon of Confirmation Bias, together with our propensity to interpret vague or ambiguous information into what we expect or desire. I am not sure of the general name given to processing vague information, but in perception it is called Pareidolia. From what I can tell, the Forer Effect is just this combination specifically applied to predictions about personality traits. Does that make more sense?
Maybe some witty scientist can construct an experiment to test my hypothesis?
A thought (finally): I'm of the belief that a philosophy or religion should be (largely) judged by the results and actions it causes. I think you've completely left the results aspect out of your evaluations, except so far as they parallel confirmation bias.
What I'm saying is, maybe these things are so popular not because people think they are true, but because people see (or think they see) positive results stemming from these beliefs.
If the Bible teaches/causes people to live in a good way (debatable, for sure, but still…), does it matter whether it's 'true' or not?
Hmmm, two points. Firstly, what you say could be used to defend astrology too. Maybe you're happy with that though? If so, you might want to look into it, it can be pretty empowering and nifty on a day-to-day basis.
Secondly, I think that if you base your life on the Bible, then the way you live will depend largely on which parts you choose to focus on. At which point I'm tempted just to pull an ol' Euthyphro on the whole deal. If you are selectively reading the Bible and deciding which parts are good and worth following, while ignoring the bad parts, this shows you're comparing it to some external standard of what is good or bad to do. If people live well after reading the Bible, then it is actually because they've correctly identified this external standard.
I guess also I was talking about the popularity of the Bible in particular, rather than Christianity more generally. I could talk about that if you want? It would have to be in a new post.
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